Avaliação do uso e ocupação do solo e modelagem de cenários futuros para o município de Boca do Acre, Amazonas

Abstract

Since the industrial revolution, the development of commercial sectors has been occurring in a disorderly manner, in line with population growth. Following this dynamic, the removal of native forests for the establishment of agricultural activities has been increasing. According to the Public Prosecutor's Office of the State of Amazonas, deforestation data increases annually, with emphasis on the region known as the “deforestation arc”, which covers a large part of the southern region of the state of Amazonas. This study aims to evaluate land use and occupation in the municipality of Boca do Acre, located in the southern mesoregion of the state of Amazonas. Deforestation modeling for the region was done using the DINAMICA EGO software, considering deforestation in the region over the last 10 years, which served as a basis for constructing land use and occupation scenarios for the coming years. For this purpose, static and categorical variables that affect deforestation were used together with the transition matrix. The dynamics of deforestation follow very noticeable patterns, with the main influences being rivers and lakes, highways, urban areas and settlements. Deforestation occurs in a concentrated manner in development settlements, in this case described as the Federal Settlement Project (PA) and the State Settlement Project (PAE), with a focus on the region described as the Antimary PAE, demonstrating a loss of approximately 5% of the municipality's total forest area to pasture, which expanded by approximately 100,000 hectares from 2022 to 2023. The trend shows an increasing loss of forest, so monitoring and the parameters and conditions that must be followed in the settlement territory are important, thus more efficient management of the territory is expected and that these projections will help direct public policies for incentives, monitoring and planning.