Escassez à mesa: correlação do risco geopolítico e as mudanças climáticas na inflação dos alimentos

Abstract

The complex relationship between geopolitical risk and food inflation demands thorough investigation, especially in a global context marked by instability and uncertainty. Analyzing and understanding the impact of geopolitical risk on food inflation is highly relevant given the complex interactions between politics, economics, and global food security. This study aims to investigate whether there is a positive relationship between geopolitical risk and food inflation, i.e., whether countries with higher geopolitical risk tend to experience higher food inflation. We use data from 177 countries from 2019 to 2021 and apply statistical analysis techniques. The choice of the panel data analysis method with a random effects estimation model is suitable for this study due to the nature of the data, which consists of observations from multiple countries over a period of time. This model offers advantages over traditional linear regression models as it allows for controlling country-specific characteristics (fixed effects) and factors that vary over time (random effects). We use the Gretl software to perform linear regression based on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, ensuring the reliability of the results and facilitating the interpretation of the estimated coefficients. The study concludes that there is a positive relationship between a country's geopolitical risk and food inflation. This means that the higher the country's instability, the higher the food inflation. The analysis also showed that there is a positive relationship between per capita gross domestic product and food inflation, i.e., per capita GDP tends to increase food inflation.