Variabilidade dos casos de malária e sua relação com as variáveis climáticas no município de Humaitá/AM

Abstract

In Brazil, malaria has been a disease of considerable concern due to the drastic increase in the incidence of cases in recent years. Therefore, the objective of this study is to correlate malaria cases in the municipality of Humaitá/AM with climate variables. The municipality has a humid tropical climate, with long rainy periods occurring between October and April, and a dry period between June and August, with May and September considered transition periods. Air temperature varies between 25.6 °C and 27 °C, with an annual rainfall of 2193.6 mm. Data were collected using the MERGE platform for the rainfall variable and the ERA5-Land platform for the temperature and relative humidity variables. Malaria case data were obtained from the National Health Foundation of Humaitá/AM, covering the years 2018 to 2024. The data were processed and analyzed using the Python programming language, with support from the Pandas libraries for organizing and processing time series. Precipitation exerts a variable influence on cases, potentially increasing breeding sites or reducing them when excessive. Air temperature showed significant positive correlations, reinforcing its role in accelerating the mosquito's life cycle and the development of Plasmodium. Relative humidity, in turn, showed diverse behaviors, sometimes favoring vector survival, and sometimes showing no direct relationship with disease incidence. Malaria transmission in Humaitá/AM results from a combination of climatic, environmental, and social factors. The study emphasizes the need for continuous climate monitoring and integrated actions in surveillance, public health, and environmental management to guide effective measures for disease prevention and control in the municipality.