As principais consequências da guerra fiscal considerando uma economia globalizada: analisando como os países formulam respostas para enfrentar ameaças à estabilidade do seu comércio externo

Abstract

This monograph analyzes the main consequences of the fiscal war in the context of international trade in 2025. The research focuses on the protectionist escalation, notably the trade conflict between the United States and China, and the imposition of high tariffs by the American government. Structured on an exploratory-descriptive qualitative approach, the study uses secondary data, including reports from international organizations (IMF, WTO) , due to the timeliness of the topic. The general objective is to analyze the consequences of this scenario, detailing the American protectionist measures of 2025 and, mainly, pointing out the effects on emerging economies such as Brazil. The study explores emerging concepts such as friendshoring and deglobalization, highlighting the fragmentation of global value chains, the distortion in the efficient allocation of resources, and the macroeconomic impact, such as the projected reduction of 0.8 percentage points in global GDP growth in 2025. The hypotheses tested are the null (H0), which suggests that the protectionist measures adopted by Donald Trump did not significantly influence international trade, and the alternative (H1), which advocates for the significant influence of these measures.