Mudanças climáticas no sudoeste amazonense: uma abordagem integrada entre indicadores climáticos e percepções de comunidades ribeirinhas

Abstract

In recent decades, the Amazon has experienced significant changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, reflected in the increased frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs) associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In this sense, the overall objective of the study was to assess the trends of climate extremes in southwestern Amazonas, their relationship with SST anomalies, and the perceptions of riverside communities about climate change. Daily series with more than 30 years of data from the Benjamin Constant, Fonte Boa, and Eirunepé stations were analysed. Using the RClimdex package, seven temperature indices and eight precipitation indices were calculated, whose significant results by the Mann-Kendall test were correlated with the regions of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Tropical Pacific using the Pearson test. The second stage of the study involved semi-structured interviews with 28 residents of the São José and Santa Luzia communities and investigated impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show a consistent increase in temperature extremes, especially in Eirunepé, the only station with a significant increase in precipitation extremes as well. Only the temperature indices showed a robust correlation with SST anomalies, especially in the North Tropical Atlantic. In communities, although the formal concept of climate change is not widely known, its effects are perceived in the more intense heat and irregular rainfall. Drought is the most critical event, affecting transport, agricultural production, water supply, food security and school operations, while flooding brings losses, but also benefits to floodplains. Resilience strategies include adjustments in production flow, new modes of transportation, financial management, and management of food and productive areas. By integrating climatological analyses and traditional knowledge, the study shows that climate extremes in the region are already a daily reality for local populations, and not just an emerging statistical trend.